2344 華邦電 籌碼綜合分析資料日期:2026-05-29收盤:158.0
近30日無注意/警示/處置記錄 | 狀態:正常
▶ 強推換手(進攻期)主力意圖:5日集中度快速翻正,正式帶動20日趨勢翻揚,不惜換手即將進入噴發段
K線 + MA5/10/20/60
成交量 / 當沖量 × 換手率% / 當沖獲利率%(右軸)
KD (9, 3, 3)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
外資買賣超(柱)× 外資持股%(線,右軸)
投信買賣超(柱)× 投信持股%(線,右軸)
自營商買賣超(柱)× 自營商持股%(線,右軸)
大戶持股%(日頻推算)× 散戶持股%校準(日頻,右軸反轉)
浮籌日增減(紅=流向散戶/綠=主力吸籌)× 主力持股%推算(右軸)
⚪ 觀望整理 浮籌/借券/融資無明確訊號,主力暫無大動作
主力操作三角:浮籌日增減 × 借券淨建空 × 融資淨賣超
融資 買進↑ / 賣出↓ / 現償↓(堆疊柱)× 融資餘額(右軸)
融券 賣出↑ / 買回↓ / 現償↓(堆疊柱)× 融券餘額(右軸)
借券賣出 / 借券還券(柱)× 借券餘額(右軸)
主力買賣超(柱)╱ 法人合計(虛線)
買賣家數差(家)
5日集中度 ╱ 20日集中度(%)
移至圖表查看數值
5日 ╱ 20日集中度 — 完整說明與評估方式
① 集中度是什麼?計算方式
集中度(Concentration Index)由 WantGoo 計算,衡量「籌碼在過去 N 天內,是向主力集中還是向散戶分散」。
5日集中度:觀察最近 5 個交易日的主力買賣超相對成交量的加權偏態(正 = 主力淨買 → 籌碼集中;負 = 主力淨賣 → 籌碼分散)。
20日集中度:同上,但用 20 日窗口,反映中期趨勢,波動較小、方向較穩定。
兩條線的關係位置比單一數值更重要。
② 數值大小代表什麼
> +5%
主力積極吸籌
籌碼高度集中
短線上攻信號
+1% ~ +5%
溫和集中
主力小量布局
偏多但不急
-1% ~ +1%
中性震盪
無明顯主力
觀望為主
-1% ~ -5%
籌碼分散中
主力減碼
偏空但未崩
< -5%
籌碼大量外流
主力砸盤洗盤
強力殺跌信號
③ 5日(快線)vs 20日(慢線)的使用方式
🟡 黃金交叉(5日由下穿越20日向上)
短線集中度開始超越中線,代表吸籌速度加快,主升段啟動的最重要信號
配合買賣家數差由負轉正 = 更強確認。
🟣 死亡交叉(5日由上穿越20日向下)
短線分散速度超過中期,代表籌碼開始外流,出場警示信號
若20日集中度同步下彎 = 主力確認退場,不宜守。
✅ 兩線均正且5日 > 20日
最強多頭格局:主力短中期均在集中籌碼,趨勢確立向上,持股最安全的區間
⚠️ 兩線均負且5日 < 20日
最弱空頭格局:短中期籌碼均分散,主力持續離場,避免進場,持有者考慮減碼
④ 8種集中度形態與操作建議
低位吸籌(深度築底)
5日在極深負值(<-7%),但 20日集中度已在改善(由負轉緩)。
意義:主力趁最後一波殺跌完成底部吸籌。操作:逢進場機會,等5日開始回升再分批買。
暴力恐嚇(趕人下車)
5日急跌速度遠快於20日(斜率差異大)。
意義:主力刻意製造恐慌,逼出短線持有者。操作:不追殺,有底部支撐時可留意反彈機會。
窒息鎖碼(沉澱期)
5日低位趨平(不再繼續跌),20日緩跌中。
意義:浮額洗盤接近尾聲,成交量極度萎縮,準備蓄勢。操作:耐心等待,直到5日開始回升。
初步換手(點火期)
5日開始向上穿越20日(兩線均仍在負值區)。
意義:主力開始點火,技術指標醞釀黃金交叉。操作:準備進場,分批布局,設好停損。
底部回升(準備上穿)
5日持續從低位上揚,逐漸靠近20日,即將形成黃金交叉。
意義:主升段啟動的前奏,是最佳進場準備窗口。操作:積極布局,等待黃金交叉確認後加碼。
低位回升(蓄勢期)
5日從深度負值持續回升,方向確認向上,但距20日仍有差距。
意義:正在蓄勢累積,需要時間讓20日也跟上。操作:小量試水,等5日持續向上且靠近20日再加碼。
強推換手(進攻期)
5日快速翻正並帶動20日上揚(兩線均正,5日 > 20日)。
意義:主力全面進攻,不惜代價拉升,即將進入噴發段。操作:續持或追買,停損設在20日集中度線下彎的位置。
高位洗盤(中繼站)
5日從正值高位回落,20日仍在上升中(兩線仍正,5日開始 < 20日)。
意義:拉高後短暫震盪洗籌,中期趨勢未變。操作:持有,不宜追高,等5日再次上揚確認後可加碼。
⑤ 結合其他指標提升準確性
集中度 + 買賣家數差
5日集中度轉正 + 買賣家數差由負轉正 = 雙重確認,散戶開始跟進,最強進場訊號。
集中度 + 大戶持股%
5日集中度暴跌(洗盤形態)+ 大戶持股%仍在上升 = 假跌真吸,是洗盤訊號而非真實出貨。
集中度 + 借券餘額
5日集中度回升 + 借券餘額同步減少 = 打壓結束 + 籌碼集中,底部最強組合訊號。
籌碼關聯分析
借券餘額 vs 收盤價
弱正相關 (+0.561)
r=+0.56 借券愈多、股價愈高 → 借券方在拉升中做空,需觀察後續壓力
外資買賣超 vs 次日漲跌
無顯著相關 (+0.129)
r=+0.13 外資買賣超對次日漲跌無預測力,不宜以外資方向推算短線漲跌
主力買賣超 vs 收盤價
弱正相關 (+0.363)
r=+0.36 主力買超與股價走勢無顯著連動,主力可能在低檔靜默布局
當沖比% vs 換手率
無顯著相關 (+0.146)
r=+0.15 當沖與換手率連動不穩定,本股換手率構成因素較複雜
三大法人合計 vs 次日漲跌
無顯著相關 (+0.126)
r=+0.13 法人合計買超對次日漲跌無預測力,法人進出非短線價格催化劑
融資餘額 vs 收盤價
弱正相關 (+0.361)
r=+0.36 融資餘額與股價走勢無明確連動,融資非本股價格的主要驅動因素
浮籌日增減 vs 借券淨建空
r=+0.296
浮籌與借券連動性低,兩者獨立操作
浮籌日增減 vs 融資淨賣超
r=-0.022
浮籌與融資連動性低
借券淨建空 vs 融資淨賣超
r=-0.125
借券與融資連動性低,主力暫無明確借券策略
技術位參考(來源:broker_tracker 20260528)主力分點:台灣摩根士丹利
強支撐
108.64
主力成本(支撐)
110.29
壓力一
121.50
壓力二(近高)
155.00
三指標追蹤分析:借券 × 外資 × 融資
歷史相似型態 → 次日結果 S2主升
篩選條件(外資+借券(淨向+賣出量級)+融資(Stage+換手率+主法同向)):【S2 主升段】換手中量|外資=買超、借券=淨增、融資=增加(主法同向)
日期收盤外資法人合計主力 借券淨成交量換手率 次1日%
今日 2026-05-29S2主升158.0+53,583+71,837+81,234+335249,8805.55%▶待觀察
2026-05-14S2主升134.0+24,008+42,375+79,061+3,819419,3829.32%-3.36%
下一交易日追蹤重點
借券餘額觀察目前 201,637 張 / 5日均 195,369 張(+3.2%)
借券賣出警戒近5日均 3,883 張;次日若超過 5,824 張視為壓力升高
外資方向連續 1 日買超
融資動向今日增加 4,576 張;近3日趨勢減 70張
主力近5日合計 +170,852 張(今日 +81,234 張)
法人近5日合計 +175,957 張(今日 +71,837 張)
成交量狀態當日 249,880 張 / 5日均 337,690 張(×0.74 均量)
回測 vs 出貨 評分
多空拉鋸  4.5/7
4項支持回測、2項偏出貨,方向未定
量縮回測
略縮量 ×0.74
法人未出
法人買超 +71,837張 ✓
借券未增
借券大增 +335張 ⚠
主力護盤
主力買超 +81,234張 ✓
支撐未破
收盤158.0 ≥ MA20 123.9 ✓
融資穩定
融資大增 +4576張 ⚠
大戶未減碼
大戶 69.6%(週增 +0.0% ✓)
次1日規律統計(1 個可比樣本)
時間平均漲跌勝率最小~最大
次1日-3.36%0/1 勝-3.4~-3.4%
原始數據一覽(共 45 筆)· 點擊欄位排序 · ⚡ 借券爆量
📌 浮籌日增減 = 法人淨賣超① + 融資淨賣超②;正(紅)=籌碼流向散戶,負(綠)=主力吸籌。
📌 散戶持股(校準) = 以 TDCC 週報(大戶持股%)為週頻錨點,換算散戶持股張數後,兩錨點間按日頻浮籌比例插值,得出每日散戶估算持股。
📌 主力持股(推算) = 總流通張數 − 散戶持股(校準),涵蓋大戶+法人,為散戶的鏡像數據,兩者合計≈總流通。
📌 週誤差(驗證) = 每個 TDCC 錨點日才顯示:「日頻浮籌週累計」vs「TDCC實際週變化」的差距;誤差越小代表日頻計算越準確,可藉此驗證模型可靠度。滑鼠懸停可看詳情。
📌 週誤差偏大的常見原因:① 借券場外划拨(不過市場交易,不計入浮籌)② ETF 申贖(大量股票進出不走次級市場)③ 外資透過 ADR/GDR 的持股轉換 ④ 大宗交易(拍板成交,不計入一般成交量)。這些路徑都會造成散戶持股實際變化,但我們的日頻浮籌無法捕捉,屬於模型盲區。
📌 法人持股%(各圖右軸):FBS 原始資料僅含最近 40 個交易日,更早的數值已用 TWT38U 日頻買賣超反推補全。超出 TWT38U 覆蓋範圍(約 65 日前)的日期,持股% 以當時最早已知值平推,僅供趨勢參考。
日期收盤成交量當沖量 當沖比%獲利率%換手率實際換手 外資投信自營法人合計 融資買進融資賣出融資現償融資餘額 融券賣出融券回補融券現償融券餘額 借券賣出借券還券淨借券借券餘額 主力買賣超買賣家數差5日集中20日集中 法人淨賣超① 融資淨賣超② 浮籌日增減 散戶持股(校準) 主力持股(推算) 週誤差(驗證)
2026-05-29158.00249,88092,35337.0%+0.40%+5.553%+3.501%+53,583+17,253+1,001+71,83720,31015,7277132,9661,665166585,1653,364-3,029+335201,637+81,234-70810.5%7.4%-71,837-4,583-76,4201,287,253
28.6%
3,212,328
71.4%
2026-05-28144.00362,558192,40353.1%+0.18%+8.057%+3.781%-51,733+4,855-1,201-48,07824,31419,95455128,3902591,28103,7245,335-334+5,001201,302-71,644+68110.4%6.2%+48,078-4,360+43,7181,243,534
27.6%
3,256,047
72.4%
2026-05-27155.00439,028287,57765.5%+0.06%+9.756%+3.366%+14,773+10,671+478+25,92322,84431,76035124,0851,0331,11254,7467,395-547+6,848196,301+31,098-52813.3%7.5%-25,923+8,916-17,0071,260,541
28.0%
3,239,040
72.0%
2026-05-26141.00336,105158,30047.1%+0.25%+7.469%+3.951%+46,872+4,364+2,637+53,87432,98616,82135133,0361,89617214,8302,786-1,482+1,304189,453+100,116-68313.8%7.3%-53,874-16,165-70,0391,330,581
29.6%
3,169,000
70.4%
2026-05-25128.50357,613210,91959.0%+0.83%+7.947%+3.260%+72,092+308+72,40010,51836,12218116,90661271703,107534-1,880-1,346188,149+30,048-4932.6%6.1%-72,400+25,604-46,7961,377,378
30.6%
3,122,203
69.4%
2026-05-22125.00193,14767,24434.8%+1.05%+4.292%+2.798%-19,138-1,191+1,878-18,45021,62213,12682142,5281,28913233,2121,308-5,072-3,764189,495+79,767-706-1.6%5.8%+18,450-8,496+9,9541,367,423
30.4%
3,132,158
69.6%
-89,062
2026-05-21114.00209,614105,31250.2%-0.09%+4.658%+2.318%-3,076+1,178-1,89717,06821,13023134,11418816642,0587,519-6,715+803193,259-40,913+634-8.6%4.6%+1,897+4,062+5,9591,341,148
29.8%
3,158,433
70.2%
2026-05-20115.50150,89489,82359.5%+0.26%+3.353%+1.357%+12,724+1,746-4,071+10,3998,23913,307670138,199181,30532,0401,061-7,384-6,323192,455+1,827+152.2%5.5%-10,399+5,068-5,3311,364,651
30.3%
3,134,930
69.7%
2026-05-19117.50184,93169,68737.7%-0.15%+4.110%+2.561%-48,978+7,462-2,600-44,11612,08517,60814143,9371,11797473,3308,087-484+7,603198,778-43,804+5952.5%5.4%+44,116+5,523+49,6391,145,811
25.5%
3,353,770
74.5%
2026-05-18130.50192,809115,99460.2%+0.82%+4.285%+1.707%-19,138+7,462-286-11,96213,1416,9831149,47445368203,1945,949-18,933-12,984191,175-10,530+2935.8%6.6%+11,962-6,158+5,8041,120,221
24.9%
3,379,360
75.1%
2026-05-15129.50348,302207,75359.6%+0.11%+7.740%+3.123%+16,049+25,824+510+42,38413,32625,76630143,3173411,23713,4234,227-8,936-4,709204,159-11,104+2809.9%6.9%-42,384+12,440-29,9441,252,233
27.8%
3,247,348
72.2%
+72,782
2026-05-14134.00419,382236,83656.5%+0.29%+9.320%+4.057%+24,008+16,323+2,043+42,37525,79018,9318155,7871,281412114,3205,219-1,400+3,819208,869+79,061-6639.6%7.1%-42,375-6,859-49,2341,337,301
29.7%
3,162,280
70.3%
2026-05-13122.00133,24368,05751.1%+0.42%+2.961%+1.449%+4,228+8,723-220+12,7309,5976,918102148,93654759403,4621,856-1,777+79205,050+4,325-2785.3%5.1%-12,730-2,679-15,4091,363,926
30.3%
3,135,655
69.7%
2026-05-12121.50317,629183,58157.8%+0.19%+7.058%+2.979%+27,422-219+27,20223,57918,63749146,35967036333,5095,253+5,253204,971+12,603-26811.0%4.8%-27,202-4,942-32,1441,419,466
31.5%
3,080,115
68.5%
2026-05-11117.50162,76044,42527.3%+0.43%+3.617%+2.630%+17,494+1,460+18,95417,39812,01536141,4669119703,2054,228-1,151+3,077199,718+56,953-65410.9%4.6%-18,954-5,383-24,3371,461,517
32.5%
3,038,064
67.5%
2026-05-08107.00174,12986,91349.9%+0.23%+3.870%+1.938%-15,612+1,781-623-14,45412,57119,2416136,1191009461502,3914,855-1,449+3,406196,641-20,339+4739.1%3.7%+14,454+6,670+21,1241,425,017
31.7%
3,074,564
68.3%
+41,835
2026-05-07114.00338,650190,54156.3%+0.26%+7.526%+3.291%+34,578+7,462+2,292+44,33215,16223,47520142,79570941113,3877,178-685+6,493193,235+4,643-16710.2%3.5%-44,332+8,313-36,0191,476,832
32.8%
3,022,749
67.2%
2026-05-06108.50241,79297,27940.2%+0.11%+5.373%+3.211%+2,786+1,631+4,41730,36519,09032151,12878011823,0902,010-3,694-1,684186,742+80,806-69210.6%3.7%-4,417-11,275-15,6921,499,406
33.3%
3,000,175
66.7%
2026-05-0598.80196,656121,56861.8%+0.10%+4.370%+1.669%+622+7,462+1,319+9,40316,91016,4872139,88534216802,4308,330-1,605+6,725188,426+622-1124.2%0.9%-9,403-423-9,8261,513,541
33.6%
2,986,040
66.4%
2026-05-0495.40198,798105,85953.2%+0.57%+4.418%+2.065%+38,896+354-286+38,96419,93513,10644139,46484869702,2562,469-2,929-460181,701+38,256-5895.3%0.8%-38,964-6,829-45,7931,579,415
35.1%
2,920,166
64.9%
2026-04-3089.80116,06560,18051.9%-0.04%+2.579%+1.242%-5,741-2,297-1,325-9,3636,3508,91681132,67923856212,1055,160-1,808+3,352182,161-9,667+3312.2%-1.7%+9,363+2,566+11,9291,562,255
34.7%
2,937,326
65.3%
-7,085
2026-04-2992.70129,99376,48658.8%+0.04%+2.889%+1.189%-6,648-240-6,8898,0155,83924135,32654457702,4301,067-4,068-3,001178,809-15,205+4533.5%-0.8%+6,889-2,176+4,7131,558,257
34.6%
2,941,324
65.4%
2026-04-2895.50219,581141,10464.3%+0.12%+4.880%+1.744%+15,807-1,037+778+15,5479,07610,75622133,17447119602,4632,096-38+2,057181,810+14,895-3324.5%-0.6%-15,547+1,680-13,8671,570,020
34.9%
2,929,561
65.1%
2026-04-2793.90270,350162,59260.1%+0.54%+6.008%+2.395%+11,770+17,767+1,170+30,70715,29810,63615134,87696331802,1883,162-138+3,023179,753+23,757-3693.7%-0.6%-30,707-4,662-35,3691,600,022
35.6%
2,899,559
64.4%
2026-04-2488.20122,54076,87662.7%+0.42%+2.723%+1.015%-704+2,663+148+2,1075,4615,41247130,22943436801,5432,640-2,789-149176,729+1,762+82.8%-1.4%-2,107-49-2,1561,601,851
35.6%
2,897,730
64.4%
-21,977
2026-04-2387.80171,220114,11866.6%-0.21%+3.805%+1.269%+3,812-376+133+3,5698,1129,37041130,22750173921,477904-2,677-1,773176,878+3,670-391.2%-2.8%-3,569+1,258-2,3111,602,634
35.6%
2,896,947
64.4%
2026-04-2290.6094,69258,71362.0%+0.09%+2.104%+0.800%-3,312-832-356-4,5013,6683,61856131,52632928301,717456-5,072-4,616178,651-4,399+201-0.8%-3.7%+4,501-50+4,4511,601,127
35.6%
2,898,454
64.4%
2026-04-2191.10185,98998,94453.2%+0.28%+4.133%+1.934%+14,347-5,127+5+9,2259,4858,64960131,53274552301,6712,408-2,387+21183,267+3,972-112-4.3%-3.6%-9,225-836-10,0611,604,533
35.7%
2,895,048
64.3%
2026-04-2085.70164,66160,97637.0%+0.26%+3.659%+2.304%+49,497-7,986+1,331+42,8426,0255,80777130,75638393701,4496,448-10,421-3,973183,246+15,787-210-5.8%-5.4%-42,842-218-43,0601,619,112
36.0%
2,880,469
64.0%
2026-04-1787.80121,00753,90444.5%+0.20%+2.689%+1.491%-18,967+289-18,6775,7814,860173130,61582060502,003402-4,426-4,024187,219-12,487+406-8.8%-6.7%+18,677-921+17,7561,613,100
35.9%
2,886,481
64.1%
+8,922
2026-04-1689.60112,13650,59045.1%+0.14%+2.492%+1.368%-15,689-1,185-16,8755,1375,21886129,86727749851,788161-346-185191,244-10,709+359-3.6%-5.7%+16,875+81+16,9561,599,887
35.6%
2,899,694
64.4%
2026-04-1590.20128,41759,05046.0%-0.03%+2.854%+1.541%-25,402-5,023-30,4257,8936,531252130,03442642702,0141,322-2+1,320191,429-27,166+552-5.1%-5.0%+30,425-1,362+29,0631,577,239
35.1%
2,922,342
64.9%
2026-04-1493.50167,859104,91962.5%-0.09%+3.730%+1.399%-4,310-2,642-6,9528,66410,57425128,92314223042,0155,401-5,829-428190,109-8,112+2011.5%-3.4%+6,952+1,910+8,8621,570,332
34.9%
2,929,249
65.1%
2026-04-1394.4095,82657,76460.3%+0.20%+2.129%+0.846%+883-6,439+756-4,7995,1713,034133130,85825526422,107418-14,913-14,495190,537-595+76-1.3%-3.6%+4,799-2,137+2,6621,568,257
34.9%
2,931,324
65.1%
2026-04-1093.50166,46094,52856.8%+0.21%+3.699%+1.598%+18,831-1,920+1,415+18,3266,5427,74254128,85426217002,11810,438-873+9,565205,032+22,403-540-0.1%-3.4%-18,326+1,200-17,1261,581,603
35.2%
2,917,978
64.8%
+21,509
2026-04-0991.00135,31270,22051.9%+0.08%+3.007%+1.446%-22,044+185-21,8598,6728,94177130,10827046002,02610,642-400+10,242195,467-20,662+521-6.2%-4.0%+21,859+269+22,1281,574,004
35.0%
2,925,577
65.0%
2026-04-0895.60171,450100,90458.9%+0.16%+3.810%+1.568%+883-1,631+2,313+1,56412,5367,34844129,45250871602,2581,342-5+1,337185,225+20,249-489-4.1%-4.7%-1,564-5,188-6,7521,576,323
35.0%
2,923,258
65.0%
2026-04-0789.40169,816101,95960.0%-0.12%+3.774%+1.508%-19,174-2,617+315-21,4768,4573,51658124,30836254812,46616,595-194+16,400183,888-26,901+598-1.8%-4.0%+21,476-4,941+16,5351,570,645
34.9%
2,928,936
65.1%
2026-04-0291.80183,486126,67669.0%-0.08%+4.077%+1.262%+2,257+383+2,6407,13910,62743119,42554337002,6534,277+4,277167,487+7,514-1570.1%-3.8%-2,640+3,488+8471,570,354
34.9%
2,929,227
65.1%
-14,927
2026-04-0193.10205,568133,70265.0%+0.18%+4.568%+1.597%-30,628-6,638-3,720-40,98713,5273,76538122,95660593602,4805,786+5,786163,210-33,951+613-1.5%-4.5%+40,987-9,762+31,2251,565,742
34.8%
2,933,839
65.2%
2026-03-3190.20248,003165,52066.7%+0.72%+5.511%+1.833%+5,077+29,414-2,888+31,6034,92911,308173113,2321,7751,12802,8111,136-3,762-2,626157,424+18,169-318-2.4%-2.7%-31,603+6,379-25,2241,561,130
34.7%
2,938,451
65.3%
2026-03-3093.00152,25486,78557.0%+0.27%+3.383%+1.455%-5,150-129-3,467-8,7477,5577,58824119,7841,47310902,1643,123-130+2,993160,050-7,331+272-7.8%-4.5%+8,747+31+8,7781,556,517
34.6%
2,943,064
65.4%
2026-03-2792.40159,71969,44143.5%+0.87%+3.549%+2.006%+24,119-6,084+2,545+20,5808,16117,48471119,839800008001,862-1,556+306157,057+12,963-110-6.8%-3.8%-20,580+9,323-11,2571,551,905
34.5%
2,947,676
65.5%
-134,450
2026-03-2696.00190,16987,34445.9%-1.39%+4.226%+2.285%-4,837-200+1,818-3,21910,90216,616111129,23300005,185+5,185156,751-7,996+316-12.9%-3.3%+3,219+5,714+8,9331,522,310
33.8%
2,977,271
66.2%
2026-03-2598.20204,01187,02042.7%-0.35%+4.534%+2.600%-56,510-2,754+1,449-57,81515,2996,682127135,058000039,102-8+39,094151,566-50,403+677-15.8%-3.7%+57,815-8,617+49,1981,359,323
30.2%
3,140,258
69.8%